Ready player none?
The recent announcement that Facebook is changing their name to Meta and will now be focusing on VR left me scratching my head.
The keynote Mark Zuckerberg gave was like watching a surreal train wreck. The whole thing felt off, from Mark’s odd cadence to the cgi-ed environments.
Vision
It is like Mark Zuckerberg can see the future but he doesn’t understand it.
I recently bought a VR headset, the Oculus Quest 2, made by F̶a̶c̶e̶b̶o̶o̶k̶ Meta. I thought I would play it a little and then stick it in a closet. But I have really been enjoying it. And I think the future of VR is bright and the future of AR is even brighter.
But is this future the vision that F̶a̶c̶e̶b̶o̶o̶k̶ Meta is offering? I don’t think so. When it comes to connecting with others, VR is interesting; it removes us from the people near to us while bringing us to people that are far away. This feels very much like Facebook.com.
So just like Facebook.com, the notion that everyone would spend most of their time in VR is sad and dystopian. Imagining the future Meta algorithms that will do anything to keep people in VR gives me shivers.
Luckily I don’t think this is our future. Because no one is asking for this. Meta is disconnected from people. Unless they get a better understanding of what people want, Meta is going to fail.
Ready player none.
Execution
What is the metaverse anyway? The metaverse is the internet for VR. Although not stated forthright, Facebook wants to build and control this new internet.
The first question that comes to mind is do we need a new internet? The metaverse could and likely will end up as a collection of VR friendly web sites.
I do think a metaverse of some form will exist at some point but I am not sure that Meta is going to be the company to build it.
Other companies have been building the infrastructure to support worldwide AR adoption through 5G.
The fundamental problems I see with Meta’s approach are:
- They are trying to own the metaverse
The internet grew to what it is today because anyone can add a website to the existing network. Open agreements of how websites work and talk to each other makes it all work.
If Meta wants to make the metaverse they should be thinking of building a new type of browser, not a new internet. And they should be driving new standards to make the metaverse open to everyone.
As of right now Meta can’t even make an open store usable by every headset.
2. The metaverse isn’t the investment VR needs
Without more users and more content the metaverse is going to be an empty place. For VR to become mainstream it needs:
a. Seamless interoperability with our current applications and devices.
Most of the applications we use on a daily bases don’t function in VR as 2d apps. It isn’t currently possible on the Oculus quest to include non VR user in group voice chats.
b. More content
Most of the VR content is like a collection of really good demos. VR needs deep full experiences. Bigger games will bring users.
c. Headsets need to be lighter
The current headsets are still pretty clunky and are not going to be appealing to most users.
d. Optics/resolution improvements
Things often look great but text is often not crisp and clear. Imagining working in VR all day long is a nightmare. I love the idea of having as many monitors as I want in a virtual space but VR isn’t there yet.
Rather than the metaverse, Meta should spend its money making VR great. Then, once there are many millions of users, they can join with others to create the open standards of the metaverse.
Timing
I don’t really agree with F̶a̶c̶e̶b̶o̶o̶k̶ Meta’s vision or their execution plan. But what bothers me even more is the timing of this. Facebook is under pretty serious scrutiny for how their products negatively impact everyone and their lack of responsibility towards the part they have played in eroding self esteem and governments alike.
Mark Zuckerberg looks exhausted and tired of dealing with it all, so in some ways this hard left turn makes sense, but it leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
And, more to the point, the issues Facebook is facing will exist in the metaverse, too. Given how immersive VR is do we trust F̶a̶c̶e̶b̶o̶o̶k̶ Meta with owning this experience? Are they going to continue to abuse our attention? To take advantage of the fact that negativity leads to more engagement? Because I don’t want to immerse myself into an identity politic hellscape.
Conclusion
I think both VR and AR are going to be trillion dollar industries, so any company spending billions has a chance of making it big. But without a hard look in the virtual mirror this isn’t going to be Meta.
I think Meta is going to spend Billions building their own metaverse, only to find everyone at a different watering hole and ultimately shut it down.
If you’re not with the people then you are against the people.
I hold a lot of the same views as John Carmack, former head of Oculus. See his keynote here.